Canadian mortgage market update: September 2025

Anyone shopping for a mortgage rate in Canada right now should be aware of the economic factors below.

• Real estate update: Canada’s housing market showed steady progress in August 2025, delivering its strongest August since 2021 and extending a months-long recovery. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported 40,257 transactions, up 1.9% from last year and 1.1% from July. Price growth, however, remains modest. The national average home price was $664,078 in August, only 1.8% higher than a year ago and virtually flat compared to July. CREA’s MLS Home Price Index, considered a better reflection of market trends, declined 3.4% annually and held steady month over month. Sellers were more active as well. New listings increased 6.1% year over year to 75,959, while total active inventory stood at 195,453 homes, up 8.8% from 2024 and consistent with long-term seasonal averages. With supply growth slightly outpacing sales, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio dipped to 51.2% from 52% in July, well within CREA’s balanced range of 45–65%. Months of inventory also remained at 4.4, the lowest since January, further reinforcing balanced conditions. Looking ahead, CREA highlights the potential for a busier fall market as pent-up demand resurfaces. Many buyers postponed purchases earlier this year, but with fresh listings arriving in September and the possibility of lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada, conditions could encourage stronger activity. 

Read more: Canadian home sales hit highest August since 2021

• CPI update: Inflation in Canada slowed in July, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 1.7% year over year, down from 1.9% in June, according to Statistics Canada. The softer reading was largely due to lower energy costs, as gasoline prices fell 16.1% compared to a year earlier. StatCan noted that without the removal of the federal carbon tax in April, inflation would have registered at 2.5%. Grocery inflation picked back up after easing in June. Food purchased in stores rose 3.4% annually, compared to 2.8% the previous month. Shelter costs also edged higher. Rent prices rose 5.1% in July, pushing the shelter index higher by 3% — the first increase since February 2024. Mortgage interest costs continued to moderate, rising 4.8% annually, down from 5.6% in June and well below the 30.9% peak recorded last August. The Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures, however, remain elevated. CPI-Median and CPI-Trim both stayed in the 3% range. With underlying price growth still sticky, policymakers face a tough decision. Markets are now pricing in a 38% chance of a quarter-point cut at the BoC’s September 17 meeting; however, the decision will depend on the August CPI data.

Read more: Canadian CPI falls to 1.7% in July

Housing market outlook for 2025

CREA updated its national housing forecast for 2025, reflecting a slightly slower recovery than previously anticipated. CREA now expects 469,503 homes to be sold this year, a 3% decline from 2024. The downward trend is mainly due to weaker-than-expected activity in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, where buyers remained cautious amid tariff-related uncertainty. Meanwhile, smaller gains are still expected across most other provinces. The national average home price is projected to decline 1.7% to $677,368. While prices are expected to rise between 4% and 8% in most regions, declines in B.C. and Ontario (both high-priced markets) continue to exert downward pressure on the national average. Looking ahead to 2026, CREA expects a 6.3% increase in sales, reaching 499,081 transactions. This would bring activity closer to pre-tariff expectations, although it would still mark the fourth consecutive year in which national sales fall short of the 500,000 mark. The average home price is expected to climb 3% to $697,929, sustaining the market’s six-year-long trend of $700,000 range.

Canadian mortgage reform update

On September 16, 2024, the federal government announced sweeping changes to mortgage qualification rules for first-time home buyers, as well as those purchasing newly-constructed homes.

As of December 15, 2024:

• 30-year amortizations will be available for all first-time home buyers, regardless of whether they have an insured mortgage. These extended amortizations are also available for any purchase of new construction.
  
  
• The maximum purchase price for an insured mortgage (where less than 20% down is paid) will be increased to $1.5 million, from the current $1 million.

These are some of the most impactful mortgage reforms announced since 2012, and are anticipated to increase first-time home buyers’ affordability and access to the housing market. 

Learn more about these new mortgage rule changes on the Ratehub.ca blog

Posted rates vs. best rates

When comparing bank mortgage rates, it’s important to know that these rates represent the banks’ posted mortgage rates. The posted rate is simply the rate that the bank is advertising in public. However, banks are often able to offer even lower rates in order to secure a borrower’s business. You may be able to access these discounted rates through negotiation, or by reaching out to a representative mortgage broker. Some banks offer rates several percentage points below what is posted, so it’s worth taking the time to see if you can get a better offer.

Bank rates vs. broker rates

As you may have noticed, bank mortgage rates are almost always higher than those of mortgage brokers. That is because mortgage brokers have access to rates from multiple banks and credit unions, as well as insurance and trust companies. That means they can shop around for you. Brokers also receive bulk discounts from lenders based on the high volume of their business that they can pass along to you.

As a result, it’s unlikely that a bank will post a lower rate than a mortgage broker. However, if you present the lowest market rate to your bank as part of the negotiation process, they may offer to match it. That said, we don’t recommend pitting the banks and brokers against each other to compete for your business. What we do recommend is comparing broker mortgage rates and bank mortgage rates alongside each other, and deciding which offer is best for you.

Comparing mortgage rates with Ratehub.ca

Whether you’re considering using a bank or broker, a variable or fixed mortgage rate, or a one to a 10-year term, we can help. Our tools find the best mortgage rates for every category and type of lender, personalized to you. Our goal at Ratehub.ca is to give Canadians the best mortgage experience from online search to close. This means offering Canadians the mortgage tools, information and articles to educate themselves, allowing them to get personalized rate quotes from multiple lenders to compare rates instantly and providing them with the best online application and offline customer service to close their mortgage all in one place.